PH GREAT . More fun in the PHILIPPINES

tatikaesque:

This would be one of my tumblr posts that has to do with work. I’ve been meaning to share this because of a post I made in facebook last night that elicited well-meaning and commendable replies and comments.

So i posted this article- Stock market hits another all-time high from Business World, in facebook. (One of my morning rituals upon arriving at my office is reading this newspaper. Ugh, i know, i sound like a dork or a geek.)

I was very adamant (and still is) that the Philippine stock market is overvalued and overpriced and a market pullback should be on its way. The  graph below shows the performance of the PSEi (Philippine Stock Exchange Index) from January 15 of the start of the year ‘til today.

(taken from pse.com.ph)

It can be noted that the stock exchange has been nothing short of stellar with the PSEi hitting its 20th all-time high yesterday. 

A friend at facebook said that market is not overvalued because the pricing just reflects the growth and earnings of the company. I told him that the companies’ earnings and financial reports has long been released. I think that the further growth is based on the market’s sentiment and optimism. Price-earnings (P/E) ratio is at over 20 times which means investors are paying 20 times more for every peso of future earnings. From this figure, we can see how confident most of the investors are for the future of the Philippine market. I wouldn’t blame them. With the government on it’s continuous fight for transparency and the country’s history of financial crises resiliency, the public can not be faulted to amass their excess wealth in the market. 

But still I say that the market is overvalued and a correction would be sooner. It is overvalued because the current prices does not reflect the earnings outlook of most of the listed company’s. Investor buying is due to emotional spurt. And a price decrease would be inevitable. 

Just an hour ago, Business World released this: Stocks down at noon. This not to discourage the buying public. This means that aggresive and speculative investors should take a breather and should be mindful of the more factual figures (i.e. P/E ratios,etc.) and not to jump into the bandwagon easily.

I am happy that financial literacy has been increasing in a third world country like the Philippines. This reflects the improved or growing maturity of the Filipinos in financial stewardship. 

I hope and am crossing my fingers that a “healthy pullback” would be coming in the next days.

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